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The September/October Equity rally is nearing exhaustion. We would now expect several weeks of retracement on risk assets into late October/early November. During this period, defensive assets (Gold, Treasuries, Yen, Euro) should make one last attempt up towards their September highs. If it materializes, we would consider this Defensive rally a last oppor...

Negative sentiment has linger on early this September, yet risk assets are finally in rebound mode, a state of affairs that should continue until late September. October could see a new risk-off period, before reflation trades and more generally risk assets starts re-accelerating up from late October/early November into next year...

The current down in risk assets has been relatively tamed for now. We expect it to reach lows into late August, when a low point could be found. Provided Gold in USD doesn’t break out significantly above 1’300 USD/oz, Gold in Euros still seems to be in a downtrend signalling that medium term, a risk-on positioned remains the more likely scenario, Jean-Fra...

Equity markets have been lingering on at levels. The consolidation since early May in Europe is due to the strength of EUR/USD (in Dollar terms, European markets have continued to linger-on higher), while in for US Equity markets, the recent performance is entirely due to the Dollar’s weakness (in Euros, the S&P500 have been consolidating lower). In a way...

Since the Spring, reflation trades and interest rates have stalled and corrected down. We believe this retracement will find an end this Summer and that H2 2017 will see a second strong move up in reflationary assets: higher interest rates, followed by higher Financial stocks, Growth and Defensive assets will under-perform again. Commodities could follow...

The consolidation down on European equities may be coming to an end. We would see the EuroStoxx 50 rally into mid July and eventually make new tops, before it consolidates down again into August. EUR/USD and Gold could be weakening some and USD/JPY may be resuming its uptrend, which could confirm the trade, Jean-Francois Owczarczak, Director, Management J...

The FED rate hike this year should be 100% priced in. Hence and although the US Dollar did bounce a bit last week, we believe that it should continue its trend downwards for another couple of weeks. Indeed, we doubt that reflation assets are ready to accelerate up again juts yet (perhaps in a few weeks), while Growth and technology may correct more. We he...

We would expect some consolidation into June, while defensive assets (e.g. Gold or the Yen) make further progress. Bitcoins have just topped, we believe we have entered a worthwhile correction...

The win of Mr. Macron seems to have been widely anticipated by the market. This leaves risk assets at expensive levels in terms of risk/reward...


Although the FED is set to rise this week, much focus is set on the further outlook for the erst of the year. This decision and the related statement come at a delicate time as many risk assets may be due for a correction down...

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