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As EUR/USD and Gold are expected to retrace in coming weeks, we expect oil to make a last move and top out. It couCakiQCH5ZY0ld enter several months of correction while the Energy sector widely under-performs

Reflationary trades have resumed their uptrend, possibly towards end of February, meanwhile EUR/USD and Gold could retest lows.

Fundamentally, we would agree that there are some reasons to be more optimistic on Europe: Oil has halved, the Greek dilemma has been postponed, the ECB has launched a massive bond buying program and economic data is improving.  That said, from an international investor’s perspective, in USD denominated terms, our FinGraphs trend positioning cannot confir...

February 20, 2015

All eyes on Europe this week with the GREXIT bluffing drama reaching a climax.  More generally, Europe has been in the limelight since the beginning of the year: GREXIT, ECB Bond purchases, war in Ukraine, SNB’s surprise announcement.  Today, we  escape this mediatic buzz as we try to look ‘next to the box’, namely to Japan and Abenomics (or what was last...

February 13, 2015

In our late December year end review, we gave the current cyclical upturn the benefit of the doubt.  We were looking for the following positive developments to confirm this stance:

- On the sectors front, early cycle movers really needed to reinstate their uptrend on a relative strength basis.
- Internationally, non-US markets needed to show some pick-up (...

February 6, 2015

After many months of low activity, markets finally got going mid last year.  Was it the anticipation of an end to US QE, war in Ukraine, the Saudis dumping oil, Abenomics, the SNB’s surprise move, GREXIT or anticipation of ECB’s own QE?  It was probably a bit of all.  For sure, the last 6 months have seen large directional moves in many asset classes.  Ov...

January 16, 2015

Naturally as a Swiss citizen, I need come back on the historical move by our Swiss National Bank yesterday.  The decision to drop the 3.5 year old 1.20 floor took the market by surprise and is fuelling widespread criticism in Switzerland and around the world.  It created havoc in the Forex Exchange markets with the EUR/CHF and USD/CHF respectively touchin...

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