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De leurs points bas en forte exagération en mars, et suite à 2 ans de baisse soutenue, la plupart des monnaies cycliques ont entamé un fort rebond contre le US Dollar, par ex le AUD, le NZD ou la GBP. L’EUR/USD a rapidement suivi, notamment à partir de mai avec l’annonce des prémises d’un plan de sauvetage fiscal sur toute la zone Euro. Nous pensons que l...

From their climax lows in March, and following 2 years of a rather linear downtrend, most cyclical currencies vs the USD have performed a strong rebound, i.e. AUD, NZD, GBP. EUR/USD is also following suit especially from Mai as the premises of a coordinated fiscal plan in the EuroZone were announced. We now believe that EUR/USD along with other cyclical c...

Following its strong sell-off in 2018, Bitcoin partially recovered, mostly following risk assets higher during 2019 and into early 2020. Similarly, it suffered during their drastic March sell-off and has since also seen an equally strong rebound. Going forward, we believe its dynamics continue to be correlated to risk assets and we hence expect it to resu...

The blitz sell-off in March triggered massive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. These are indeed unparalleled on a historic basis. The subsequent recovery rally has been equally impressive and many risk assets have bounced back and are now in reach of their mid Q1 highs (some such as the NASDAQ100 are now already well above them). Shorter-term, since...

The benign outcome of the G20 meeting in Japan, as well as anticipations for a FED rate cut later this month, are fueling a rally to new highs. Longer term we expect this equity rally to continue into late Summer. Shorter term, following some upside momentum over the next few days, a small pullback period may materialize into mid-July (“Buy the dip”)

The SEC’s approval, rejection or delay of the VanEck Bitcoin ETF is looming. Market watchers expect it to have a strong impact on the near price developments of Bitcoin and Cryptos more generally. In this video, we will consider the current Bitcoin uptrend, its upside targets, and possible retracement levels. We will also look to other assets to understan...

Two weeks ago, we suggested that equity markets could enter a correction. We couldn’t clearly identify the possible catalyst, yet in retrospect, the return of the US/China trade war is as good as any. In this video, we review US and Chinese equity markets, standalone, and on a relative basis. Our goal is to assess potential relative strength going forward...

Sur nos graphique daily, l’EUR/USD est plutôt survendu, alors que son potentiel baissier pour l’instant est plus ou moins atteint. Le USD/JPY est par contre proche de niveaux de resistance importants et commence à sembler suracheté. Ainsi, jusqu’en mai, nous pensons que l’EUR et le JPY pourraient rebondir contre le US Dollar. Ces movements pourraient corr...

Comme nous le mentionnions dans notre dernier interview il y a deux semaines, nous nous attendions à ce que les actifs à risques fassent un dernier mouvement de hausse sur fin mars / début avril, puis pourraient entamer une période de 3 à 6 semaines de consolidation. Nous pensons que ce retournement pourrait s’effectuer ces prochains jours (au maximum sur...

Les marchés actions sont pour l’instant encore très forts. Ils ont certes consolidé un peu entre fin février et début mars, mais sont depuis repartis à la hausse. Cependant, le potential haussier sur nos graphiques “hourly” semblent s’épuiser à nouveau, et d’ici la fin du mois (au plus tard début avril), nous anticipons le début d’une période de 3 à 6 sem...

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