Risk Assets – The Recovery Rally Extends Into Late Summer

The blitz sell-off in March triggered massive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. These are indeed unparalleled on a historic basis. The subsequent recovery rally has been equally impressive and many risk assets have bounced back and are now in reach of their mid Q1 highs (some such as the NASDAQ100 are now already well above them). Shorter-term, since early June, risk assets have been consolidating at high levels· We expect this sideways/down move to continue another week or so. Following that from mid-July, we expect the recovery rally to resume, probably towards mid/late August, perhaps September. The S&P500 could then make new all-time highs, while EUR/USD could reach well into the 1.15 – 1.18 range