Confirming the upside break-out
In our late December year end review, we gave the current cyclical upturn the benefit of the doubt. We were looking for the following positive developments to confirm this stance:
- On the sectors front, early cycle movers really needed to reinstate their uptrend on a relative strength basis. - Internationally, non-US markets needed to show some pick-up (the world needed other successes next to the US). - Cross asset, equities needed to outperform Long dated treasuries again.
See for reference the “Wrap-up conclusion” of our year end review: